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8.0 Financial Plan
- Growth will be moderate, cash flows steady.
- Sales increase at a steady rate of 4% per year.
- Costs will increase at a rate of 1% to 2% per year.
- The company will invest residual profits into financial markets and not company expansion (unless absolutely necessary).
- General maintenance and repairs will be kept up to maintain a solid operation.
- Future cash investments will use NPV projections to achieve maximum return with limited risk.
8.1 Important Assumptions
The financial plan depends on important assumptions, most of which are shown in the following table as annual figures. The key underlying assumptions are:
- We assume JD Drews will be unable to make their note payment or lease payment and will have to default on their loans.
- We assume that we will take over the SBA note payment and acquire all of the assets and leasehold improvements.
- We assume the equipment is in good working order.
- We assume this will happen in the next three to six months.
- We assume a slow-growth economy, without major recession.
- We assume that there are no unforseen changes in the expectancy in the popularity of our candidates.
- We assume access to loans and financing are sufficient to maintain and fulfil our financial plan as shown in the tables.
- We assume the landlord will have no problem allowing us to take over the current lease.
- We assume The Pasta House Co. will approve our leasehold improvements and budget.
General Assumptions
| General Assumptions |
| | FY 2004 | FY 2005 | FY 2006 |
| Plan Month | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Current Interest Rate | 5.50% | 5.50% | 5.50% |
| Long-term Interest Rate | 9.50% | 9.50% | 9.50% |
| Tax Rate | 22.03% | 21.30% | 22.03% |
| Other | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8.2 Projected Profit and Loss
The most important assumption in the Projected Profit and Loss statement is the gross margin. Although it doesn't jump drastically in the first year, over time the restaurant will develop its customer base and reputation and the growth will pick up more rapidly towards the fourth and fifth years of business.
Month-by-month assumptions for profit and loss are included in the appendix.
Profit and Loss
| Pro Forma Profit and Loss |
| | FY 2004 | FY 2005 | FY 2006 |
| Sales | £1,681,248 | £1,747,957 | £1,817,321 |
| Direct Cost of Sales | £421,053 | £429,474 | £438,064 |
| Other Costs of Goods | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| | ------------ | ------------ | ------------ |
| Total Cost of Sales | £421,053 | £429,474 | £438,064 |
| | | | |
| Gross Margin | £1,260,195 | £1,318,483 | £1,379,257 |
| Gross Margin % | 74.96% | 75.43% | 75.90% |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| Expenses | | | |
| Payroll | £471,438 | £528,780 | £544,643 |
| Sales and Marketing Promotions | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| Depreciation | £66,144 | £66,144 | £66,144 |
| Credit Card Discounts | £21,692 | £21,930 | £22,172 |
| Royality & Advertising Fees | £104,142 | £105,288 | £106,446 |
| Rent Fixed Rate with Cam | £112,200 | £113,434 | £114,682 |
| Utilities 2.4% of Sales | £40,350 | £40,794 | £41,243 |
| Insurance | £35,304 | £35,692 | £36,085 |
| Paper Costs | £30,262 | £32,881 | £36,169 |
| Coupons | £158,555 | £160,299 | £162,062 |
| Trash Disposal | £1,500 | £1,517 | £1,533 |
| Uniforms | £3,000 | £3,033 | £3,066 |
| Telephone | £3,000 | £3,033 | £3,066 |
| Maintaince & Repairs | £13,500 | £13,649 | £13,799 |
| Smallwares | £1,500 | £1,517 | £1,533 |
| Outside Services | £3,000 | £3,033 | £3,066 |
| Cleaning & Dishwashing | £11,769 | £11,898 | £12,029 |
| Menus & Guest Checks | £1,200 | £1,213 | £1,227 |
| Linen & Laundry | £1,500 | £1,517 | £1,533 |
| Music & Entertainment | £1,500 | £1,517 | £1,533 |
| Advertising | £1,500 | £1,517 | £1,533 |
| Over/Short | (£180) | (£182) | (£184) |
| Professional Fees | £4,500 | £4,550 | £4,600 |
| Taxes & Licenses | £1,980 | £2,002 | £2,024 |
| Bank Charges | £936 | £946 | £957 |
| Pest Control | £1,500 | £1,517 | £1,533 |
| Payroll Taxes (National Insurance) | £47,144 | £52,878 | £54,464 |
| Office Expense | £3,900 | £3,943 | £3,986 |
| Other | £2,100 | £2,123 | £2,146 |
| | ------------ | ------------ | ------------ |
| Total Operating Expenses | £1,144,936 | £1,216,460 | £1,243,090 |
| | | | |
| Profit Before Interest and Taxes | £115,259 | £102,023 | £136,167 |
| EBITDA | £181,403 | £168,167 | £202,311 |
| Interest Expense | £56,050 | £53,200 | £50,667 |
| Taxes Incurred | £13,067 | £10,399 | £18,831 |
| | | | |
| Net Profit | £46,142 | £38,423 | £66,668 |
| Net Profit/Sales | 2.74% | 2.20% | 3.67% |
Profit Monthly
Profit Yearly
Gross Margin Monthly
Gross Margin Yearly
8.3 Projected Cash Flow
The cash flow depends on assumptions for stock turnover, payment days, and accounts receivable management. Our projected same-day collections is critical, and is reasonable and customary in the restaurant industry. We do not expect to need significant additional support even when we reach the less profitable months, as they are expected. The first six months of PHC openings have shown huge sales volumes. We expect this volume, however our projections do not reflect this high volume. We have done this in the event there is normal sales during the first six months.
Month-by-month assumptions for projected cash flow are included in the appendix.
Cash Flow
| Pro Forma Cash Flow |
| | FY 2004 | FY 2005 | FY 2006 |
| Cash Received | | | |
| | | | |
| Cash from Operations | | | |
| Cash Sales | £1,681,248 | £1,747,957 | £1,817,321 |
| Subtotal Cash from Operations | £1,681,248 | £1,747,957 | £1,817,321 |
| | | | |
| Additional Cash Received | | | |
| VAT, VAT, HST/GST Received | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| New Current Borrowing | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| New Other Liabilities (interest-free) | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| New Fixed liabilities | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| Sales of Other Current Assets | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| Sales of Fixed assets | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| New Investment Received | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| Subtotal Cash Received | £1,681,248 | £1,747,957 | £1,817,321 |
| | | | |
| Expenditures | FY 2004 | FY 2005 | FY 2006 |
| | | | |
| Expenditures from Operations | | | |
| Cash Spending | £471,438 | £528,780 | £544,643 |
| Bill Payments | £1,036,823 | £1,113,804 | £1,138,592 |
| Subtotal Spent on Operations | £1,508,261 | £1,642,584 | £1,683,235 |
| | | | |
| Additional Cash Spent | | | |
| VAT, VAT, HST/GST Paid Out | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| Principal Repayment of Current Borrowing | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| Other Liabilities Principal Repayment | £7,500 | £7,500 | £7,500 |
| Fixed liabilities Principal Repayment | £26,664 | £26,664 | £26,664 |
| Purchase Other Current Assets | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| Purchase Fixed assets | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| Dividends | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| Subtotal Cash Spent | £1,542,425 | £1,676,748 | £1,717,399 |
| | | | |
| Net Cash Flow | £138,823 | £71,208 | £99,922 |
| Cash Balance | £228,823 | £300,031 | £399,953 |
Cash
8.4 Projected Balance Sheet
The projected Balance Sheet is quite solid. We do not anticipate difficulty meeting our debt obligations providing that we achieve our specific goals.
Balance Sheet
| Pro Forma Balance Sheet |
| | FY 2004 | FY 2005 | FY 2006 |
| Assets | | | |
| | | | |
| Current Assets | | | |
| Cash | £228,823 | £300,031 | £399,953 |
| Stock | £39,382 | £40,170 | £40,973 |
| Other Current Assets | £10,000 | £10,000 | £10,000 |
| Total Current Assets | £278,205 | £350,201 | £450,926 |
| | | | |
| Fixed assets | | | |
| Fixed assets | £547,600 | £547,600 | £547,600 |
| Accumulated Depreciation | £66,144 | £132,288 | £198,432 |
| Total Fixed assets | £481,456 | £415,312 | £349,168 |
| Total Assets | £759,661 | £765,513 | £800,094 |
| | | | |
| Liabilities and Capital | FY 2004 | FY 2005 | FY 2006 |
| | | | |
| Current Liabilities | | | |
| Accounts Payable | £91,398 | £91,676 | £93,754 |
| Current Borrowing | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| Other Current Liabilities | £67,500 | £60,000 | £52,500 |
| Subtotal Current Liabilities | £158,898 | £151,676 | £146,254 |
| | | | |
| Fixed liabilities | £573,336 | £546,672 | £520,008 |
| Total Liabilities | £732,234 | £698,348 | £666,262 |
| | | | |
| Paid-in Capital | £0 | £0 | £0 |
| Retained Earnings | (£17,400) | £28,742 | £67,165 |
| Earnings | £46,142 | £38,423 | £66,668 |
| Total Capital | £28,742 | £67,165 | £133,833 |
| Total Liabilities and Capital | £760,976 | £765,513 | £800,094 |
| | | | |
| Net Worth | £27,427 | £67,165 | £133,833 |
8.5 Business Ratios
We expect our net profit margin, and gross margin to increase steadily over the three-years. Our net working capital will increase by year three, proving that we have the cash flows to remain a going concern. The following table shows these important financial ratios. Industry profile ratios based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code 5812.0108, Italian restaurant, are shown for comparison.
Ratios
| Ratio Analysis |
| | FY 2004 | FY 2005 | FY 2006 | Industry Profile |
| Sales Growth | 0.00% | 3.97% | 3.97% | 6.96% |
| | | | | |
| Percent of Total Assets | | | | |
| Stock | 5.18% | 5.25% | 5.12% | 3.90% |
| Other Current Assets | 1.32% | 1.31% | 1.25% | 28.39% |
| Total Current Assets | 36.62% | 45.75% | 56.36% | 37.68% |
| Fixed assets | 63.38% | 54.25% | 43.64% | 62.32% |
| Total Assets | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| | | | | |
| Current Liabilities | 20.92% | 19.81% | 18.28% | 19.17% |
| Fixed liabilities | 75.47% | 71.41% | 64.99% | 29.21% |
| Total Liabilities | 96.39% | 91.23% | 83.27% | 48.38% |
| Net Worth | 3.61% | 8.77% | 16.73% | 51.62% |
| | | | | |
| Percent of Sales | | | | |
| Sales | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| Gross Margin | 74.96% | 75.43% | 75.90% | 59.31% |
| Selling, General & Administrative Expenses | 72.17% | 73.20% | 72.15% | 39.09% |
| Advertising Expenses | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.75% |
| Profit Before Interest and Taxes | 6.86% | 5.84% | 7.49% | 1.59% |
| | | | | |
| Main Ratios | | | | |
| Current | 1.75 | 2.31 | 3.08 | 1.26 |
| Quick | 1.50 | 2.04 | 2.80 | 0.87 |
| Total Debt to Total Assets | 96.39% | 91.23% | 83.27% | 54.38% |
| Pre-tax Return on Net Worth | 215.88% | 72.69% | 63.89% | 3.27% |
| Pre-tax Return on Assets | 7.79% | 6.38% | 10.69% | 7.17% |
| | | | | |
| Additional Ratios | FY 2004 | FY 2005 | FY 2006 | |
| Net Profit Margin | 2.74% | 2.20% | 3.67% | n.a |
| Return on Equity | 168.23% | 57.21% | 49.81% | n.a |
| | | | | |
| Activity Ratios | | | | |
| Stock Turnover | 10.91 | 10.80 | 10.80 | n.a |
| Accounts Payable Turnover | 12.33 | 12.17 | 12.17 | n.a |
| Payment Days | 27 | 30 | 30 | n.a |
| Total Asset Turnover | 2.21 | 2.28 | 2.27 | n.a |
| | | | | |
| Debt Ratios | | | | |
| Debt to Net Worth | 26.70 | 10.40 | 4.98 | n.a |
| Current Liab. to Liab. | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | n.a |
| | | | | |
| Liquidity Ratios | | | | |
| Net Working Capital | £119,307 | £198,525 | £304,673 | n.a |
| Interest Coverage | 2.06 | 1.92 | 2.69 | n.a |
| | | | | |
| Additional Ratios | | | | |
| Assets to Sales | 0.45 | 0.44 | 0.44 | n.a |
| Current Debt/Total Assets | 21% | 20% | 18% | n.a |
| Acid Test | 1.50 | 2.04 | 2.80 | n.a |
| Sales/Net Worth | 61.30 | 26.02 | 13.58 | n.a |
| Dividend Payout | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | n.a |
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